Shrimp prices will likely be relatively firm in 2015, concludes a report issued to clients by Rabobank entitled “A New Dawn for the Prawn.” However, while rising international demand – particularly in the USA – bodes well for sellers, an expected gradual recovery from early mortality syndrome (EMS) disease problems that have affected a wide swath of shrimp farming regions in recent years could exert downward pressure on prices before the year is out should output increase significantly.
According to the Utrecht, Holland-headquartered financial services company’s analysis: “US buyers appear to absorb the high prices with ease, with imports growing in both volume and value. Only Japan, the world’s third-largest shrimp importer, has seen demand soften due to a combination of a depreciating exchange rate, recession and long-term negative population dynamics.”
Estimating that global production of shrimp rose by about 10% in 2014, Rabobank noted that the increase has been uneven among leading supplier nations. In fact, the report pointed out: “Problems remain significant in China, Thailand Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico. Production in each of these countries has shrunk considerably and has yet to fully recover.”
Here are some of the key statistics highlighted by Rabobank:
- India, which surpassed Thailand as the top supplier to the US market in 2013, increased output by 15% to 380,000 metric tons this year. It is poised to boost volume to as much as 500,000 tons by 2015, bar bad weather or other unforeseen problems.
- Production in Thailand will probably not reach 300,00 tons in 2014, according to Rabobank. However, a recovery now underway is expected to gather momentum in 2015.
Poj Aramwattananont, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association, figures that output will amount to only 200,000 tons this year, with export volume expected to fall by 25%. From January to August of 2014, the value of shrimp exports from Thailand was 36.9 billion baht, down from 41.8 billion baht during the same timeframe in 2013.
- Vietnam, which has been hard hit by EMS outbreaks, is bouncing back. Output is expected to total 300,000 tons this year, up from 280,000 tons packed in 2013. Still, this is dramatically lower than the 496,000 tons produced in 2011.
- Data from China, where shrimp farms were first hit by EMS in 2009, are difficult to accurately quantify. Rabobank estimates, however, that production of shrimp there in 2014 was in the range of 500,000 tons and could rise to 600,000 in 2015.
- Production in Ecuador during 2014 was said to be in the range of 320,000 tons, while output in Indonesia was estimated at 385,000 tons. Meanwhile Mexico, which saw fewer aquaculture operations seeded in 2014, is not likely to produce more than 60,000 tons this year.
